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Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent. The rise incentral bank rates to fight inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels of about 3.5 percent. The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 WEO. On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible. On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing conditions could worsen debt distress. Financial markets could also suddenly reprice in response to adverse inflation news, while further geopolitical fragmentation could hamper economic progress. In most economies, amid the cost-of-living crisis, the priority remains achieving sustained disinflation. With tighter monetary conditions and lower growth potentially affecting financial and debt stability, it is necessary to deploy macroprudential tools and strengthen debt restructuring frameworks. Accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations in China would safeguard the recovery, with positive cross-border spillovers. Fiscal support should be better targeted at those most affected by elevated food and energy prices, and broad-based fiscal relief measures should be withdrawn. Stronger multilateral cooperation is essential to preserve the gains from the rules-based multilateral system and to mitigate climate change by limiting emissions and raising green investment. Checkout the full report here: Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth

by Youness El Kandoussi | 1 year ago | 0 Comment(s) | 181 Share(s) | Tags :


Table of Contents Introduction. 2 Definition and overview of blockchain technology. 2 Importance of blockchain in finance management. 2 Purpose of the presentation. 2 Understanding Blockchain. 2 Basics of blockchain technology. 2 Distributed ledger. 2 Decentralization. 3 Cryptography. 3 Key components of a blockchain. 3 Blocks. 3 Transactions. 3 Consensus mechanism.. 3 Different types of blockchains. 3 Public blockchains. 3 Private blockchains. 3 Consortium blockchains. 3 III. Implications of Blockchain in Finance Management. 3 Enhanced Security and Transparency. 3 Immutable records and tamper resistance. 3 Auditability and traceability. 3 Efficient and Cost-Effective Transactions. 4 Eliminating intermediaries. 4 Faster settlements and reduced transaction costs. 4 Smart Contracts and Automation. 4 Introduction to smart contracts. 4 Streamlined processes and reduced paperwork. 4 Fraud Prevention and Risk Mitigation. 4 Increased trust through consensus. 4 Improved identity verification and KYC processes. 4 Use Cases of Blockchain in Finance Management. 4 Cross-Border Payments and Remittances. 4 Supply Chain Finance. 4 Trade Finance and Letters of Credit. 4 Asset Tokenization and Securities Trading. 4 Peer-to-Peer Lending and Crowdfunding. 5 Insurance Claims and Underwriting. 5 Challenges and Considerations. 5 Scalability and performance issues. 5 Regulatory and legal concerns. 5 Interoperability between different blockchains. 5 Privacy and data protection. 5 Future Outlook. 5 Emerging trends and developments. 5 Collaboration between traditional finance and blockchain. 5 Potential impact on financial institutions and intermediaries. 5 VII. Conclusion. 5 Recap of key points. 5 Summary of blockchain's implications on finance management. 6 Potential benefits and opportunities. 6 Closing remarks. 6 I. Introduction A. Definition and overview of blockchain technology Blockchain technology is a decentralized and distributed ledger that records transactions across multiple computers. It enables secure and transparent transactions without the need for intermediaries. B. Importance of blockchain in finance management Blockchain has significant implications for finance management. It enhances security, reduces costs, automates processes, and mitigates fraud risks, transforming the way financial transactions are conducted. C. Purpose of the presentation The purpose of this presentation is to provide an understanding of blockchain technology and its implications in finance management. We will explore the key components of blockchain, its benefits, and various use cases in the financial industry. II. Understanding Blockchain A. Basics of blockchain technology 1. Distributed ledger Blockchain utilizes a distributed ledger, where multiple participants maintain and validate the transaction records collectively. This eliminates the need for a central authority and enhances trust. 2. Decentralization Blockchain operates in a decentralized manner, meaning no single entity has control over the entire network. This ensures transparency, resilience, and reduces the risk of a single point of failure. 3. Cryptography Blockchain uses cryptographic techniques to secure transactions and ensure data integrity. It employs cryptographic hash functions and digital signatures to authenticate and protect the information stored on the blockchain. B. Key components of a blockchain 1. Blocks Blocks are the building blocks of a blockchain and contain a set of transactions. Each block is linked to the previous block through a cryptographic hash, forming a chain of blocks. 2. Transactions Transactions represent the exchange of assets or information on the blockchain. They are recorded in blocks and are typically validated by network participants through a consensus mechanism. 3. Consensus mechanism Consensus mechanisms ensure agreement among network participants on the validity of transactions. It enables trust and prevents fraudulent activities. Common consensus mechanisms include Proof of Work (PoW), Proof of Stake (PoS), and Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance (PBFT). C. Different types of blockchains 1. Public blockchains Public blockchains are open and accessible to anyone. They are maintained by a decentralized network of participants, and anyone can join the network, validate transactions, and create blocks. Bitcoin and Ethereum are examples of public blockchains. 2. Private blockchains Private blockchains are restricted to a specific group of participants. They provide privacy and control over the network, making them suitable for enterprises and organizations. Access to the blockchain is permissioned, and participants are often known entities. 3. Consortium blockchains Consortium blockchains are a hybrid between public and private blockchains. They are operated and maintained by a consortium or a group of organizations that have shared control over the network. Consortium blockchains offer a balance between openness and control. III. Implications of Blockchain in Finance Management A. Enhanced Security and Transparency 1. Immutable records and tamper resistance Blockchain's immutability ensures that once a transaction is recorded on the blockchain, it cannot be altered or deleted. This provides a high level of security and reduces the risk of fraud and tampering. 2. Auditability and traceability Blockchain's transparent nature enables easy auditing of transactions. Each transaction is recorded on the blockchain, creating an auditable trail of activities. This enhances transparency and accountability in financial transactions. B. Efficient and Cost-Effective Transactions 1. Eliminating intermediaries Blockchain eliminates the need for intermediaries, such as banks or clearinghouses, in financial transactions. This reduces costs, speeds up processes, and enables direct peer-to-peer transactions. 2. Faster settlements and reduced transaction costs Blockchain enables near-instantaneous settlements compared to traditional systems that may take days. It also reduces transaction costs by removing intermediaries and streamlining processes. C. Smart Contracts and Automation 1. Introduction to smart contracts Smart contracts are 2. Streamlined processes and reduced paperwork Smart contracts automate and streamline various financial processes, eliminating the need for manual paperwork and reducing human errors. This increases efficiency and accelerates transaction processing. D. Fraud Prevention and Risk Mitigation 1. Increased trust through consensus Blockchain's consensus mechanisms foster trust and prevent fraudulent activities. The distributed nature of blockchain ensures that transactions are verified by multiple participants, reducing the risk of fraud or manipulation. 2. Improved identity verification and KYC processes Blockchain technology can enhance identity verification and Know Your Customer (KYC) processes. It allows for secure storage and sharing of verified user data, reducing the risk of identity theft and fraud. IV. Use Cases of Blockchain in Finance Management A. Cross-Border Payments and Remittances Blockchain facilitates faster and cheaper cross-border payments by eliminating intermediaries, reducing fees, and providing real-time transaction tracking. B. Supply Chain Finance Blockchain enhances supply chain finance by enabling transparent and secure tracking of goods, verifying authenticity, reducing fraud, and streamlining payment processes. C. Trade Finance and Letters of Credit Blockchain simplifies trade finance by digitizing and automating the processing of letters of credit, reducing paperwork, and improving trust among participants. D. Asset Tokenization and Securities Trading Blockchain enables the tokenization of assets such as real estate or artwork, making them divisible and tradable. It enhances liquidity, simplifies ownership transfer, and reduces intermediaries in securities trading. E. Peer-to-Peer Lending and Crowdfunding Blockchain platforms facilitate peer-to-peer lending and crowdfunding by connecting borrowers directly with lenders, automating loan agreements, and providing transparency and auditability. F. Insurance Claims and Underwriting Blockchain streamlines insurance processes by automating claims processing, reducing fraud through transparent records, and improving underwriting accuracy through access to verified data. V. Challenges and Considerations A. Scalability and performance issues Blockchain faces challenges in scaling to accommodate a large number of transactions and maintaining performance. Solutions like layer-two protocols and sharding are being explored to address these challenges. B. Regulatory and legal concerns Blockchain's decentralized nature raises regulatory and legal concerns, such as data privacy, cross-border transactions, and compliance with existing financial regulations. Regulatory frameworks need to evolve to address these issues. C. Interoperability between different blockchains Interoperability between different blockchains is essential for seamless integration and exchange of assets and information. Efforts are underway to develop standards and protocols for interoperability. D. Privacy and data protection While blockchain provides transparency, preserving privacy and protecting sensitive data is crucial. Privacy-enhancing technologies like zero-knowledge proofs and secure multiparty computation are being developed to address these concerns. VI. Future Outlook A. Emerging trends and developments Emerging trends include the integration of blockchain with other technologies like artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and decentralized finance (DeFi). These developments have the potential to revolutionize finance management further. B. Collaboration between traditional finance and blockchain Traditional financial institutions are exploring blockchain technology and collaborating with blockchain startups to leverage its benefits. Partnerships and consortia are being formed to drive innovation and adoption in the financial industry. C. Potential impact on financial institutions and intermediaries Blockchain has the potential to disrupt traditional financial institutions and intermediaries. They will need to adapt and innovate to remain competitive in a decentralized and digitally transformed financial landscape. VII. Conclusion A. Recap of key points Blockchain technology is a decentralized and transparent ledger that offers enhanced security, efficiency, automation, and fraud prevention in finance management. B. Summary of blockchain's implications on finance management Blockchain technology improves security, reduces costs, stream C. Potential benefits and opportunities Implementing blockchain in finance management can lead to reduced transaction costs, faster settlements, improved fraud prevention, and increased efficiency and transparency, unlocking new opportunities for innovation and growth. D. Closing remarks Blockchain technology has the potential to reshape the finance industry by revolutionizing how transactions are conducted, recorded, and verified. Embracing blockchain's capabilities can drive a more secure, efficient, and inclusive financial ecosystem.

by Youness El Kandoussi | 9 months ago | 0 Comment(s) | 161 Share(s) | Tags :


La gestion du risque op rationnel dans les banques marocaines : vers une standardisation des approches de gestion Le risque op rationnel est d fini par le Comit de Bâle comme « le risque de pertes r sultant de processus internes inad quats ou d faillants, de personnes et systèmes, ou d’ v nements externes» https://www.ir-bankofafrica.ma/sites/default/files/2020-08/Organisation%20de%20la%20gestion%20des%20risques%20-%202019.pdf. Il englobe ainsi les risques li s à la fraude, aux erreurs humaines, aux d faillances techniques, aux catastrophes naturelles, aux changements r glementaires, etc. Le risque op rationnel est consid r comme l'un des principaux risques auxquels sont expos es les banques, et sa gestion est devenue un enjeu strat gique pour la stabilit financière et la rentabilit des tablissements bancaires. Au Maroc, le secteur bancaire a connu ces dernières ann es une volution importante, marqu e par la diversification des activit s, l'innovation technologique, l'internationalisation et la concurrence accrue. Ces facteurs ont augment la complexit et la vuln rabilit des banques face au risque op rationnel. Ainsi, les banques marocaines ont dû renforcer leur dispositif de gestion des risques op rationnels, en se conformant aux normes internationales et aux exigences du r gulateur national, Bank Al-Maghrib. Selon une tude men e par Chemlal et al. (2020) http://revue-rimms.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ARTICLE-7-ASMAE-MRABET-2.pdf, les banques marocaines cot es en bourse ont adopt une approche globale et int gr e de la gestion des risques op rationnels, bas e sur les tapes suivantes : L'identification des risques op rationnels à travers l'analyse des processus m tiers, des incidents pass s et des sc narios potentiels. L' valuation des risques op rationnels à l'aide d'indicateurs quantitatifs (pertes effectives, pertes attendues, capital conomique) et qualitatifs (cartographie des risques, auto- valuation des risques). La maîtrise des risques op rationnels par la mise en place de mesures pr ventives (contrôles internes, proc dures, formation) et correctives (plans d'action, assurance, transfert). Le suivi des risques op rationnels par le reporting r gulier des indicateurs de risque, l'audit interne et externe, et le contrôle permanent. La gouvernance des risques op rationnels par l'implication du conseil d'administration, du comit de direction g n rale, du comit de pilotage et gestion des risques, et de la direction g n rale en charge des risques groupe. L' tude a galement montr que la gestion des risques op rationnels a un impact positif sur la performance financière des banques marocaines cot es en bourse. En effet, les auteurs ont trouv une corr lation significative entre les indicateurs de performance financière (produit net bancaire, r sultat net d'exploitation, coefficient d'exploitation, rentabilit des capitaux propres et rentabilit des actifs) et les variables li es à la gestion des risques op rationnels (capital r glementaire allou au risque op rationnel, nombre d'incidents d clar s, nombre de contrôles effectu s). Par ailleurs, une autre tude r alis e par El Khattabi (2018) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/371304923_La_gestion_du_risque_operationnel_au_sein_des_banques_marocaines_vers_une_standardisation_des_approches_de_gestion a analys les pratiques de gestion du risque op rationnel au sein de six banques marocaines (Attijariwafa Bank, BMCE Bank of Africa, Banque Centrale Populaire, Cr dit Agricole du Maroc, Cr dit du Maroc et Soci t G n rale Maroc). L'auteur a constat que les banques marocaines ont adopt des approches de gestion du risque op rationnel similaires, bas es sur les recommandations du Comit de Bâle et les directives de Bank Al-Maghrib. Il a galement relev que les banques marocaines utilisent principalement l'approche standardis e pour calculer le capital r glementaire requis pour couvrir le risque op rationnel. Cette approche consiste à appliquer un coefficient fixe aux produits nets bancaires par ligne d'activit . L'auteur a soulign que cette approche pr sente des limites, car elle ne reflète pas la r alit du risque op rationnel et ne tient pas compte de la diversit des profils de risque des banques. Il a donc sugg r que les banques marocaines voluent vers des approches plus avanc es, bas es sur des modèles internes qui prennent en compte les sp cificit s de chaque banque. En conclusion, on peut dire que la gestion du risque op rationnel dans les banques marocaines a connu une am lioration significative, grâce à la mise en place d'un dispositif de gestion global et int gr , conforme aux normes internationales et aux exigences du r gulateur national. Cette gestion a permis aux banques marocaines de renforcer leur r silience face aux v nements impr vus, et d'am liorer leur performance financière. Toutefois, il reste encore des marges de progression, notamment en matière de calcul du capital r glementaire, qui pourrait être affin par l'utilisation d'approches plus avanc es et adapt es à chaque banque. Quel est le niveau d'exposition aux de Risques Op rationnels des Banques Marocaine Il n'existe pas de classement officiel des banques marocaines selon leur niveau de risque op rationnel. Toutefois, on peut essayer d'appr cier ce risque à partir de certains indicateurs financiers, tels que le capital r glementaire allou au risque op rationnel, le nombre d'incidents d clar s, le nombre de contrôles effectu s, ou encore le ratio de couverture du risque op rationnel. Selon les donn es publi es par Bank Al-Maghrib https://www.bkam.ma/A-propos/Gouvernance/Gestion-des-risques-et-continuite-d-activites, le capital r glementaire allou au risque op rationnel par les banques marocaines s' levait à 13,9 milliards de dirhams à fin 2020, soit 11,6% du capital r glementaire total. Ce montant varie selon les banques, en fonction de leur taille, de leur activit et de la m thode de calcul utilis e. Les banques marocaines utilisent principalement l'approche standardis e, qui consiste à appliquer un coefficient fixe aux produits nets bancaires par ligne d'activit . Selon les rapports annuels des banques marocaines cot es en bourse https://www.bkam.ma/Stabilite-financiere/Cadre-analytique/Cartographie-des-risques-systemiques, le capital r glementaire allou au risque op rationnel se r partissait comme suit en 2020 : Attijariwafa Bank : 4,3 milliards de dirhams, soit 12,5% du capital r glementaire total. BMCE Bank of Africa : 2,8 milliards de dirhams, soit 10,9% du capital r glementaire total. Banque Centrale Populaire : 2,6 milliards de dirhams, soit 10,7% du capital r glementaire total. Cr dit du Maroc : 1 milliard de dirhams, soit 14% du capital r glementaire total. Soci t G n rale Marocaine de Banques : 0,9 milliard de dirhams, soit 9% du capital r glementaire total. Cr dit Agricole du Maroc : 0,8 milliard de dirhams, soit 9,4% du capital r glementaire total. Ces chiffres ne reflètent pas n cessairement le niveau r el du risque op rationnel dans chaque banque, car ils d pendent aussi des produits nets bancaires et des coefficients appliqu s. Il faudrait donc les compl ter par d'autres indicateurs qualitatifs, tels que le nombre et la nature des incidents d clar s, le nombre et la fr quence des contrôles effectu s, ou encore le ratio de couverture du risque op rationnel. Ce ratio mesure la capacit d'une banque à absorber les pertes li es au risque op rationnel à partir de ses fonds propres. Il se calcule en divisant les fonds propres par le capital r glementaire allou au risque op rationnel. Malheureusement, ces indicateurs ne sont pas toujours disponibles ou comparables entre les banques. Il faudrait donc se r f rer aux rapports d'audit interne et externe, aux rapports du r gulateur ou aux tudes sp cialis es pour avoir une vision plus pr cise du risque op rationnel dans les banques marocaines. R f rences : https://www.ir-bankofafrica.ma/sites/default/files/2020-08/Organisation%20de%20la%20gestion%20des%20risques%20-%202019.pdf: Comit de Bâle sur le contrôle bancaire (2006). Principes fondamentaux pour un contrôle bancaire efficace. [1] http://revue-rimms.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ARTICLE-7-ASMAE-MRABET-2.pdf: Chemlal, M., Benazzou, L., Mrabet, A., & Gharib, B. (2020). L’impact de la gestion des risques op rationnels sur la performance financière des banques marocaines cot es en bourse. Revue Internationale du Marketing et Management Strat gique (RIMMS), 1(2), 101-120. [2] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/371304923_La_gestion_du_risque_operationnel_au_sein_des_banques_marocaines_vers_une_standardisation_des_approches_de_gestion: El Khattabi, A. (2018). La gestion du risque op rationnel au sein des banques marocaines : vers une standardisation des approches de gestion. Thèse de doctorat, Universit Mohammed V de Rabat. [3]

by Youness El Kandoussi | 7 months ago | 0 Comment(s) | 161 Share(s) | Tags :