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BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), was established on June 16, 2009, with the primary objective of reducing member nations' dependence on the Western economy. Notably, BRICS collectively represents 25% of the world's total economic output, covers 26.7% of the world's surface area, comprises 41.5% of the global population, and boasts a combined GDP of $25 trillion. And now we know why people are fascinated by BRICS.Upon closer examination, it becomes evident that South Africa stands as the weakest member. Meanwhile, Brazil contends with an alarmingly high interest rate of 13.25%, and Russia remains embroiled in a protracted conflict that was initially expected to last no longer than two months but has now persisted for a year and a half, leading to a host of sanctions. In contrast, India appears to hold the most promising long-term potential within BRICS, and China's impressive, meritocratic GDP cannot be overlooked.However, skepticism lingers regarding BRICS' ability to fully meet global expectations, driven by factors extending beyond economic considerations. One pressing concern centers on the significant conflict between BRICS' heavyweight members, China and India, particularly in the heavily militarized Tibet region. Recent events, such as those in the Galwan Valley, have amplified these tensions (https://lnkd.in/epYzuYpM).Additionally, the recent inclusion of new members within BRICS, including KSA, UAE, Argentina, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia, raises questions. While KSA and UAE demonstrate economic strength, Argentina grapples with staggering hyperinflation at 113.40%. Egypt's economic performance, marked by high inflation and a soaring interest rate of 19.25%, is concerning, and its national currency has seen a significant depreciation from $0.10 in 2008 to just $0.032 in 2023. Meanwhile, Iran struggles under sanctions.Amidst these uncertainties, my skepticism regarding BRICS' prospects remains unwavering. I believe that the recent recruitment of new members has extinguished the last opportunity for BRICS to thrive. Photo Credits to visualcapitalist.com

by Badr Elhamzaoui | 2 years ago | 0 Comment(s) | 927 Share(s) | Tags :


Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent. The rise incentral bank rates to fight inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels of about 3.5 percent. The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 WEO. On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible. On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing conditions could worsen debt distress. Financial markets could also suddenly reprice in response to adverse inflation news, while further geopolitical fragmentation could hamper economic progress. In most economies, amid the cost-of-living crisis, the priority remains achieving sustained disinflation. With tighter monetary conditions and lower growth potentially affecting financial and debt stability, it is necessary to deploy macroprudential tools and strengthen debt restructuring frameworks. Accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations in China would safeguard the recovery, with positive cross-border spillovers. Fiscal support should be better targeted at those most affected by elevated food and energy prices, and broad-based fiscal relief measures should be withdrawn. Stronger multilateral cooperation is essential to preserve the gains from the rules-based multilateral system and to mitigate climate change by limiting emissions and raising green investment. Checkout the full report here: Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth

by Youness El Kandoussi | 3 years ago | 0 Comment(s) | 834 Share(s) | Tags :


Le risque op rationnel est un risque non financier qui peut avoir un impact n gatif sur la performance d'une organisation. Il peut être caus par une vari t de facteurs, tels que les erreurs humaines, les d faillances des systèmes, les catastrophes naturelles ou les actes de malveillance. Le secteur financier marocain est soumis à un cadre r glementaire strict en matière de gestion des risques, notamment le risque op rationnel. Ce cadre est bas sur les normes internationales d finies par le Comit de Bâle sur le contrôle bancaire (BCBS). Statistiques Selon une tude de Bank Al-Maghrib, le risque op rationnel repr sente environ 30 % du capital requis par les banques marocaines. Les principaux risques op rationnels auxquels sont expos es les banques marocaines sont les suivants : Les erreurs humaines (25 %) Les d faillances des systèmes (20 %) Les risques li s aux systèmes d'information (15 %) Les risques li s aux clients (10 %) Les risques li s aux produits (10 %) Évolutions Le management du risque op rationnel a connu un d veloppement significatif dans le secteur financier marocain au cours des dernières ann es. Cette volution est due à plusieurs facteurs, notamment : La mise en œuvre des normes internationales du BCBS La pression des investisseurs et des r gulateurs La prise de conscience croissante des risques op rationnels Perspectives Le management du risque op rationnel continuera à se d velopper dans le secteur financier marocain dans les ann es à venir. Cette volution sera port e par plusieurs facteurs, notamment : La digitalisation des activit s bancaires La complexification des produits et services financiers L' mergence de nouveaux risques op rationnels Recommandations Pour renforcer le management du risque op rationnel dans le secteur financier marocain, il est recommand de mettre en œuvre les mesures suivantes : D velopper une culture de la gestion des risques au sein des institutions financières Investir dans les technologies de l'information et de la communication Renforcer la coop ration entre les institutions financières et les r gulateurs Sources et liens Bank Al-Maghrib, "Rapport sur le risque op rationnel dans le secteur bancaire marocain" (2022) Comit de Bâle sur le contrôle bancaire, "Basel III: International framework for liquidity risk measurement, standards and monitoring" (2013) International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB), "International Standards on Auditing (ISAs)" International Organization for Standardization (ISO), "ISO 31000:2018 Risk management - Guidelines" Conclusion Le management du risque op rationnel est une composante essentielle de la gestion d'une institution financière. Le secteur financier marocain a fait des progrès significatifs dans ce domaine, mais il reste encore des efforts à faire pour renforcer la culture de la gestion des risques et pour s'adapter aux nouveaux risques op rationnels.

by Youness El Kandoussi | 2 years ago | 0 Comment(s) | 858 Share(s) | Tags :