Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent. The rise incentral bank rates to fight inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels of about 3.5 percent. The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 WEO. On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible. On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing conditions could worsen debt distress. Financial markets could also suddenly reprice in response to adverse inflation news, while further geopolitical fragmentation could hamper economic progress. In most economies, amid the cost-of-living crisis, the priority remains achieving sustained disinflation. With tighter monetary conditions and lower growth potentially affecting financial and debt stability, it is necessary to deploy macroprudential tools and strengthen debt restructuring frameworks. Accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations in China would safeguard the recovery, with positive cross-border spillovers. Fiscal support should be better targeted at those most affected by elevated food and energy prices, and broad-based fiscal relief measures should be withdrawn. Stronger multilateral cooperation is essential to preserve the gains from the rules-based multilateral system and to mitigate climate change by limiting emissions and raising green investment. Checkout the full report here: Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth

Context In the last few days, several businesses, including aviation and banking sectors, experienced significant disruptions due to issues with Microsoft services. This outage affected various cloud-based services, including Microsoft 365, Azure, and Teams. The interruptions were caused by a combination of network configuration changes and infrastructure issues within Microsoft's global network (https://www.reedsmith.com/en/perspectives/2024/02/business-interruption-claims-in-2024-a-global-perspective) (https://status.cloud.microsoft/#:~:text=URL%3A%20https%3A%2F%2Fstatus,100). The outage highlighted the increasing reliance of global industries on cloud services and the significant impact such disruptions can have on business operations, from communication breakdowns to halted transactions (https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240116375142/en/Allianz-Risk-Barometer-A-Cyber-Event-Is-the-Top-Global-Business-Risk-for-2024). While Microsoft worked to resolve the issues, it underscored the importance of robust cyber risk management and contingency planning in mitigating the effects of such outages (https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/20530078/the-cyber-risks-faced-by-the-aviation-industry---ten-things-to-know). The recent Microsoft outages, which disrupted services like Microsoft 365, Teams, and Outlook, were primarily caused by a series of technical and security issues. Initially, Microsoft identified that a "wide-area networking (WAN) routing change" led to connectivity problems. This change triggered issues with network latency and timeouts, affecting how packets were forwarded across Microsoft's global network. This impacted users' ability to access various cloud services, including Azure, SharePoint, and OneDrive (https://www.bankinfosecurity.com/microsoft-365-cloud-service-outage-disrupts-users-worldwide-a-21017) (https://www.techradar.com/news/this-is-what-caused-the-recent-huge-microsoft-365-and-teams-outage). Additionally, Microsoft faced cyber risks, particularly distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. These attacks, launched by a group known as Storm-1359, aimed to disrupt services by overwhelming Microsoft's infrastructure with malicious traffic. The DDoS attacks targeted layer 7 of the OSI model, affecting HTTP(S) traffic and causing resource exhaustion and slowdowns (https://msrc.microsoft.com/blog/2023/06/microsoft-response-to-layer-7-distributed-denial-of-service-ddos-attacks/). To mitigate these issues, Microsoft rolled back the problematic network changes and implemented additional protections to prevent similar disruptions in the future. These measures included enhancing their Web Application Firewall (WAF) and adding stricter controls on network command executions to avoid unintended consequences from network changes (https://www.bankinfosecurity.com/microsoft-experiences-second-major-cloud-outage-in-2-weeks-a-21134) (https://www.techradar.com/news/this-is-what-caused-the-recent-huge-microsoft-365-and-teams-outage). In recent days, significant disruptions in Microsoft services have caused major headaches for businesses worldwide. Industries ranging from aviation to banking found themselves grappling with unexpected downtime, impacting critical operations and highlighting a growing reliance on cloud-based services. This article explores whether Microsoft should be held legally accountable for failing to ensure business continuity for its global customers. The Outage and Its Impacts The recent Microsoft outages affected a range of cloud services, including Microsoft 365, Azure, and Teams. These disruptions were triggered by a combination of network configuration changes and infrastructure issues within Microsoft’s global network. Specifically, a "wide-area networking (WAN) routing change" led to severe connectivity problems. This change caused network latency and timeouts, disrupting the forwarding of data packets across Microsoft's global network. As a result, users experienced significant issues accessing cloud services such as Azure, SharePoint, and OneDrive. In addition to technical glitches, Microsoft also faced cyber threats, particularly distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. A group known as Storm-1359 targeted Microsoft’s infrastructure with malicious traffic, aiming to exhaust resources and slow down services. These attacks impacted layer 7 of the OSI model, affecting HTTP(S) traffic and causing further disruptions. The Importance of Business Continuity These outages underscore the critical role that cloud services play in modern business operations. From communication breakdowns to halted transactions, the ripple effects of such disruptions can be severe. The aviation and banking sectors, in particular, experienced significant operational impacts, illustrating the high stakes involved. As businesses increasingly rely on cloud services for their day-to-day operations, the importance of robust cyber risk management and contingency planning becomes more apparent. Legal and Ethical Considerations Given the scale and impact of these disruptions, the question arises: should Microsoft be sued for not ensuring business continuity? On one hand, businesses rely on service level agreements (SLAs) with cloud providers like Microsoft to guarantee a certain level of uptime and reliability. When these expectations are not met, it can lead to substantial financial losses and operational challenges. Businesses may argue that Microsoft failed to uphold its end of the agreement, warranting legal action to recover damages. On the other hand, the complexity of managing a global cloud infrastructure means that occasional outages are inevitable. Microsoft did take immediate steps to mitigate the issues, rolling back problematic network changes and enhancing protections against future disruptions. These efforts demonstrate a commitment to resolving the issues and improving service reliability. Cyber Risk Management and Contingency Planning The outages highlight the need for businesses to adopt comprehensive cyber risk management strategies and contingency plans. Relying solely on a single cloud provider can expose businesses to significant risks. Diversifying cloud services and implementing robust backup systems can help mitigate the impact of such outages. Additionally, regular testing and updating of contingency plans can ensure that businesses are better prepared to handle unexpected disruptions. Conclusion While the recent Microsoft outages have caused significant disruptions, suing the tech giant may not be the most effective solution. Instead, businesses should focus on enhancing their own cyber risk management and contingency planning efforts. By diversifying cloud services and implementing robust backup systems, businesses can better protect themselves against future outages. At the same time, cloud providers like Microsoft must continue to improve their infrastructure and security measures to minimize the risk of such disruptions and maintain customer trust. The recent events serve as a stark reminder of the interconnected nature of modern business operations and the importance of resilience in the face of unexpected challenges. References https://www.reedsmith.com/en/perspectives/2024/02/business-interruption-claims-in-2024-a-global-perspective https://status.cloud.microsoft/#:~:text=URL%3A%20https%3A%2F%2Fstatus,100). (https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240116375142/en/Allianz-Risk-Barometer-A-Cyber-Event-Is-the-Top-Global-Business-Risk-for-2024 https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/20530078/the-cyber-risks-faced-by-the-aviation-industry---ten-things-to-know https://www.bankinfosecurity.com/microsoft-365-cloud-service-outage-disrupts-users-worldwide-a-21017 https://www.techradar.com/news/this-is-what-caused-the-recent-huge-microsoft-365-and-teams-outage https://msrc.microsoft.com/blog/2023/06/microsoft-response-to-layer-7-distributed-denial-of-service-ddos-attacks/

La gestion du risque op rationnel dans les banques marocaines : vers une standardisation des approches de gestion Le risque op rationnel est d fini par le Comit de Bâle comme « le risque de pertes r sultant de processus internes inad quats ou d faillants, de personnes et systèmes, ou d’ v nements externes» https://www.ir-bankofafrica.ma/sites/default/files/2020-08/Organisation%20de%20la%20gestion%20des%20risques%20-%202019.pdf. Il englobe ainsi les risques li s à la fraude, aux erreurs humaines, aux d faillances techniques, aux catastrophes naturelles, aux changements r glementaires, etc. Le risque op rationnel est consid r comme l'un des principaux risques auxquels sont expos es les banques, et sa gestion est devenue un enjeu strat gique pour la stabilit financière et la rentabilit des tablissements bancaires. Au Maroc, le secteur bancaire a connu ces dernières ann es une volution importante, marqu e par la diversification des activit s, l'innovation technologique, l'internationalisation et la concurrence accrue. Ces facteurs ont augment la complexit et la vuln rabilit des banques face au risque op rationnel. Ainsi, les banques marocaines ont dû renforcer leur dispositif de gestion des risques op rationnels, en se conformant aux normes internationales et aux exigences du r gulateur national, Bank Al-Maghrib. Selon une tude men e par Chemlal et al. (2020) http://revue-rimms.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ARTICLE-7-ASMAE-MRABET-2.pdf, les banques marocaines cot es en bourse ont adopt une approche globale et int gr e de la gestion des risques op rationnels, bas e sur les tapes suivantes : L'identification des risques op rationnels à travers l'analyse des processus m tiers, des incidents pass s et des sc narios potentiels. L' valuation des risques op rationnels à l'aide d'indicateurs quantitatifs (pertes effectives, pertes attendues, capital conomique) et qualitatifs (cartographie des risques, auto- valuation des risques). La maîtrise des risques op rationnels par la mise en place de mesures pr ventives (contrôles internes, proc dures, formation) et correctives (plans d'action, assurance, transfert). Le suivi des risques op rationnels par le reporting r gulier des indicateurs de risque, l'audit interne et externe, et le contrôle permanent. La gouvernance des risques op rationnels par l'implication du conseil d'administration, du comit de direction g n rale, du comit de pilotage et gestion des risques, et de la direction g n rale en charge des risques groupe. L' tude a galement montr que la gestion des risques op rationnels a un impact positif sur la performance financière des banques marocaines cot es en bourse. En effet, les auteurs ont trouv une corr lation significative entre les indicateurs de performance financière (produit net bancaire, r sultat net d'exploitation, coefficient d'exploitation, rentabilit des capitaux propres et rentabilit des actifs) et les variables li es à la gestion des risques op rationnels (capital r glementaire allou au risque op rationnel, nombre d'incidents d clar s, nombre de contrôles effectu s). Par ailleurs, une autre tude r alis e par El Khattabi (2018) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/371304923_La_gestion_du_risque_operationnel_au_sein_des_banques_marocaines_vers_une_standardisation_des_approches_de_gestion a analys les pratiques de gestion du risque op rationnel au sein de six banques marocaines (Attijariwafa Bank, BMCE Bank of Africa, Banque Centrale Populaire, Cr dit Agricole du Maroc, Cr dit du Maroc et Soci t G n rale Maroc). L'auteur a constat que les banques marocaines ont adopt des approches de gestion du risque op rationnel similaires, bas es sur les recommandations du Comit de Bâle et les directives de Bank Al-Maghrib. Il a galement relev que les banques marocaines utilisent principalement l'approche standardis e pour calculer le capital r glementaire requis pour couvrir le risque op rationnel. Cette approche consiste à appliquer un coefficient fixe aux produits nets bancaires par ligne d'activit . L'auteur a soulign que cette approche pr sente des limites, car elle ne reflète pas la r alit du risque op rationnel et ne tient pas compte de la diversit des profils de risque des banques. Il a donc sugg r que les banques marocaines voluent vers des approches plus avanc es, bas es sur des modèles internes qui prennent en compte les sp cificit s de chaque banque. En conclusion, on peut dire que la gestion du risque op rationnel dans les banques marocaines a connu une am lioration significative, grâce à la mise en place d'un dispositif de gestion global et int gr , conforme aux normes internationales et aux exigences du r gulateur national. Cette gestion a permis aux banques marocaines de renforcer leur r silience face aux v nements impr vus, et d'am liorer leur performance financière. Toutefois, il reste encore des marges de progression, notamment en matière de calcul du capital r glementaire, qui pourrait être affin par l'utilisation d'approches plus avanc es et adapt es à chaque banque. Quel est le niveau d'exposition aux de Risques Op rationnels des Banques Marocaine Il n'existe pas de classement officiel des banques marocaines selon leur niveau de risque op rationnel. Toutefois, on peut essayer d'appr cier ce risque à partir de certains indicateurs financiers, tels que le capital r glementaire allou au risque op rationnel, le nombre d'incidents d clar s, le nombre de contrôles effectu s, ou encore le ratio de couverture du risque op rationnel. Selon les donn es publi es par Bank Al-Maghrib https://www.bkam.ma/A-propos/Gouvernance/Gestion-des-risques-et-continuite-d-activites, le capital r glementaire allou au risque op rationnel par les banques marocaines s' levait à 13,9 milliards de dirhams à fin 2020, soit 11,6% du capital r glementaire total. Ce montant varie selon les banques, en fonction de leur taille, de leur activit et de la m thode de calcul utilis e. Les banques marocaines utilisent principalement l'approche standardis e, qui consiste à appliquer un coefficient fixe aux produits nets bancaires par ligne d'activit . Selon les rapports annuels des banques marocaines cot es en bourse https://www.bkam.ma/Stabilite-financiere/Cadre-analytique/Cartographie-des-risques-systemiques, le capital r glementaire allou au risque op rationnel se r partissait comme suit en 2020 : Attijariwafa Bank : 4,3 milliards de dirhams, soit 12,5% du capital r glementaire total. BMCE Bank of Africa : 2,8 milliards de dirhams, soit 10,9% du capital r glementaire total. Banque Centrale Populaire : 2,6 milliards de dirhams, soit 10,7% du capital r glementaire total. Cr dit du Maroc : 1 milliard de dirhams, soit 14% du capital r glementaire total. Soci t G n rale Marocaine de Banques : 0,9 milliard de dirhams, soit 9% du capital r glementaire total. Cr dit Agricole du Maroc : 0,8 milliard de dirhams, soit 9,4% du capital r glementaire total. Ces chiffres ne reflètent pas n cessairement le niveau r el du risque op rationnel dans chaque banque, car ils d pendent aussi des produits nets bancaires et des coefficients appliqu s. Il faudrait donc les compl ter par d'autres indicateurs qualitatifs, tels que le nombre et la nature des incidents d clar s, le nombre et la fr quence des contrôles effectu s, ou encore le ratio de couverture du risque op rationnel. Ce ratio mesure la capacit d'une banque à absorber les pertes li es au risque op rationnel à partir de ses fonds propres. Il se calcule en divisant les fonds propres par le capital r glementaire allou au risque op rationnel. Malheureusement, ces indicateurs ne sont pas toujours disponibles ou comparables entre les banques. Il faudrait donc se r f rer aux rapports d'audit interne et externe, aux rapports du r gulateur ou aux tudes sp cialis es pour avoir une vision plus pr cise du risque op rationnel dans les banques marocaines. R f rences : https://www.ir-bankofafrica.ma/sites/default/files/2020-08/Organisation%20de%20la%20gestion%20des%20risques%20-%202019.pdf: Comit de Bâle sur le contrôle bancaire (2006). Principes fondamentaux pour un contrôle bancaire efficace. [1] http://revue-rimms.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ARTICLE-7-ASMAE-MRABET-2.pdf: Chemlal, M., Benazzou, L., Mrabet, A., & Gharib, B. (2020). L’impact de la gestion des risques op rationnels sur la performance financière des banques marocaines cot es en bourse. Revue Internationale du Marketing et Management Strat gique (RIMMS), 1(2), 101-120. [2] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/371304923_La_gestion_du_risque_operationnel_au_sein_des_banques_marocaines_vers_une_standardisation_des_approches_de_gestion: El Khattabi, A. (2018). La gestion du risque op rationnel au sein des banques marocaines : vers une standardisation des approches de gestion. Thèse de doctorat, Universit Mohammed V de Rabat. [3]