Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent. The rise incentral bank rates to fight inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels of about 3.5 percent. The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 WEO. On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible. On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing conditions could worsen debt distress. Financial markets could also suddenly reprice in response to adverse inflation news, while further geopolitical fragmentation could hamper economic progress. In most economies, amid the cost-of-living crisis, the priority remains achieving sustained disinflation. With tighter monetary conditions and lower growth potentially affecting financial and debt stability, it is necessary to deploy macroprudential tools and strengthen debt restructuring frameworks. Accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations in China would safeguard the recovery, with positive cross-border spillovers. Fiscal support should be better targeted at those most affected by elevated food and energy prices, and broad-based fiscal relief measures should be withdrawn. Stronger multilateral cooperation is essential to preserve the gains from the rules-based multilateral system and to mitigate climate change by limiting emissions and raising green investment. Checkout the full report here: Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth

by Youness El Kandoussi | 1 year ago | 0 Comment(s) | 181 Share(s) | Tags :


Moroccan financial institutions face a number of challenges in managing their operational risk, audit, and internal controls. These challenges include: The increasing complexity of financial products and services The growing number of regulations and compliance requirements A lack of awareness of operational risk and its impact on the financial institution. Inadequate systems and processes for managing operational risk. The increasing frequency and severity of cyberattacks The shortage of skilled staff Poor coordination between different departments within the financial institution. Here are some statistics: According to a recent study by the World Bank, operational risk costs Moroccan financial institutions an average of 1.5% of their annual revenue. The study also found that Moroccan financial institutions are more likely to experience operational risk events than their counterparts in other countries. A study by the World Bank found that operational risk costs the global financial sector an estimated $200 billion each year. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision estimates that operational risk represents about 70% of the total risk faced by banks. A survey by the Association of Corporate Treasurers found that 60% of financial institutions have experienced an operational incident in the past year. The average cost of an operational incident is $1 million. M3T Consulting and RiskNucleus® System can help Moroccan financial institutions overcome these challenges by providing: A comprehensive operational risk management framework that is tailored to the specific needs of the institution A team of experienced consultants who can help implement the framework and train staff A state-of-the-art risk management software system called RiskNucleus® These statistics show that operational risk is a major challenge for financial institutions. M3T Consulting and RiskNucleus® System can help Moroccan financial institutions overcome these challenges and protect their businesses. RiskNucleus® is a in premises software system that helps financial institutions automate their operational risk management processes. The system provides a single view of risk across the entire organization, and it helps institutions to identify, assess, and mitigate risks. Contact M3T Consulting today to learn more about how we can help your institution overcome operational risk challenges. M3T Consulting and RiskNucleus® have a proven track record of helping financial institutions overcome operational risk challenges. We have helped over 100 institutions in the Middle East, Europe and North Africa region, and we have a team of experienced consultants who can help you implement a comprehensive operational risk management framework. Contact us today to learn more about how we can help your institution.

by Youness El Kandoussi | 7 months ago | 0 Comment(s) | 129 Share(s) | Tags :


BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), was established on June 16, 2009, with the primary objective of reducing member nations' dependence on the Western economy. Notably, BRICS collectively represents 25% of the world's total economic output, covers 26.7% of the world's surface area, comprises 41.5% of the global population, and boasts a combined GDP of $25 trillion. And now we know why people are fascinated by BRICS.Upon closer examination, it becomes evident that South Africa stands as the weakest member. Meanwhile, Brazil contends with an alarmingly high interest rate of 13.25%, and Russia remains embroiled in a protracted conflict that was initially expected to last no longer than two months but has now persisted for a year and a half, leading to a host of sanctions. In contrast, India appears to hold the most promising long-term potential within BRICS, and China's impressive, meritocratic GDP cannot be overlooked.However, skepticism lingers regarding BRICS' ability to fully meet global expectations, driven by factors extending beyond economic considerations. One pressing concern centers on the significant conflict between BRICS' heavyweight members, China and India, particularly in the heavily militarized Tibet region. Recent events, such as those in the Galwan Valley, have amplified these tensions (https://lnkd.in/epYzuYpM).Additionally, the recent inclusion of new members within BRICS, including KSA, UAE, Argentina, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia, raises questions. While KSA and UAE demonstrate economic strength, Argentina grapples with staggering hyperinflation at 113.40%. Egypt's economic performance, marked by high inflation and a soaring interest rate of 19.25%, is concerning, and its national currency has seen a significant depreciation from $0.10 in 2008 to just $0.032 in 2023. Meanwhile, Iran struggles under sanctions.Amidst these uncertainties, my skepticism regarding BRICS' prospects remains unwavering. I believe that the recent recruitment of new members has extinguished the last opportunity for BRICS to thrive. Photo Credits to visualcapitalist.com

by Badr Elhamzaoui | 6 months ago | 0 Comment(s) | 183 Share(s) | Tags :