Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent. The rise incentral bank rates to fight inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels of about 3.5 percent. The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 WEO. On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible. On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing conditions could worsen debt distress. Financial markets could also suddenly reprice in response to adverse inflation news, while further geopolitical fragmentation could hamper economic progress. In most economies, amid the cost-of-living crisis, the priority remains achieving sustained disinflation. With tighter monetary conditions and lower growth potentially affecting financial and debt stability, it is necessary to deploy macroprudential tools and strengthen debt restructuring frameworks. Accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations in China would safeguard the recovery, with positive cross-border spillovers. Fiscal support should be better targeted at those most affected by elevated food and energy prices, and broad-based fiscal relief measures should be withdrawn. Stronger multilateral cooperation is essential to preserve the gains from the rules-based multilateral system and to mitigate climate change by limiting emissions and raising green investment. Checkout the full report here: Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth

The Central Bank of Morocco (Bank Al-Maghrib) is responsible for maintaining financial stability and ensuring the safety and soundness of the banking system in the country. As part of its role, the central bank sets regulations and guidelines for operational risk management in Moroccan banks. The Central Bank of Morocco has implemented a number of measures to manage operational risk in the banking sector. These include: Establishing regulations and guidelines for banks to establish their own operational risk management systems and processes. Conducting regular inspections and supervisory actions to ensure that banks are in compliance with these regulations and guidelines. Encouraging banks to implement international standards such as ISO 31000 for risk management and ISO 22301 for business continuity management. Encouraging banks to establish crisis management teams and emergency plans to respond to potential operational risks. In addition, the central bank also monitors and assesses the overall level of operational risk in the banking sector and takes action as necessary to mitigate potential threats to financial stability. Overall, the Central Bank of Morocco plays a key role in ensuring that Moroccan banks have robust operational risk management systems in place, which helps to protect the interests of depositors, shareholders, and the financial system as a whole.

Le risque op rationnel est un risque non financier qui peut avoir un impact n gatif sur la performance d'une organisation. Il peut être caus par une vari t de facteurs, tels que les erreurs humaines, les d faillances des systèmes, les catastrophes naturelles ou les actes de malveillance. Le secteur financier marocain est soumis à un cadre r glementaire strict en matière de gestion des risques, notamment le risque op rationnel. Ce cadre est bas sur les normes internationales d finies par le Comit de Bâle sur le contrôle bancaire (BCBS). Statistiques Selon une tude de Bank Al-Maghrib, le risque op rationnel repr sente environ 30 % du capital requis par les banques marocaines. Les principaux risques op rationnels auxquels sont expos es les banques marocaines sont les suivants : Les erreurs humaines (25 %) Les d faillances des systèmes (20 %) Les risques li s aux systèmes d'information (15 %) Les risques li s aux clients (10 %) Les risques li s aux produits (10 %) Évolutions Le management du risque op rationnel a connu un d veloppement significatif dans le secteur financier marocain au cours des dernières ann es. Cette volution est due à plusieurs facteurs, notamment : La mise en œuvre des normes internationales du BCBS La pression des investisseurs et des r gulateurs La prise de conscience croissante des risques op rationnels Perspectives Le management du risque op rationnel continuera à se d velopper dans le secteur financier marocain dans les ann es à venir. Cette volution sera port e par plusieurs facteurs, notamment : La digitalisation des activit s bancaires La complexification des produits et services financiers L' mergence de nouveaux risques op rationnels Recommandations Pour renforcer le management du risque op rationnel dans le secteur financier marocain, il est recommand de mettre en œuvre les mesures suivantes : D velopper une culture de la gestion des risques au sein des institutions financières Investir dans les technologies de l'information et de la communication Renforcer la coop ration entre les institutions financières et les r gulateurs Sources et liens Bank Al-Maghrib, "Rapport sur le risque op rationnel dans le secteur bancaire marocain" (2022) Comit de Bâle sur le contrôle bancaire, "Basel III: International framework for liquidity risk measurement, standards and monitoring" (2013) International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB), "International Standards on Auditing (ISAs)" International Organization for Standardization (ISO), "ISO 31000:2018 Risk management - Guidelines" Conclusion Le management du risque op rationnel est une composante essentielle de la gestion d'une institution financière. Le secteur financier marocain a fait des progrès significatifs dans ce domaine, mais il reste encore des efforts à faire pour renforcer la culture de la gestion des risques et pour s'adapter aux nouveaux risques op rationnels.